Outlook and Forecasts: 1999-2005
Welcome to The China Energy Report CD-ROM

According to Qing Yang, Deputy Director General, Planning and Investment Department, the State Power Corporation of China, total installed capacity of power generation in China at the end of 1998 was 270GW, and total electric generation was 1,160TWh in that year. In March 1999, Yang advised the editors of The China Energy Report, that projected total installed capacity will be about 300GW and 400GW in 2000 and 2005 respectively, and electric generation 1350TWh and 1640TWh in 2000 and 2005 respectively. Those are the official numbers The China Energy Report has received.
But what do they really mean? As an admittedly huge market, where is the China market heading? As we were closing this report for publication, many issues hung over the region. How powerful an effect will the Asian financial crisis have on markets in China? How will developers and manufacturers react to a slow-down in the demand for energy and to a growing proportion of foreign projects that have failed to yield anticipated returns? Political squabbles continue with the U.S., and intrigue surrounding acceptance to the World Trade Organization cloud the horizon as well. The financial community must also consider the default of GITIC, the Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp., and the financial implications of creditors possibly receiving just 13 cents on the dollar. How does this affect risk and future financing?
Our assessment is quite simple. The Chinese market now sits on a plateau—not unlike the one on which it sat at the end of the last five year period. A strong energy sector is essential to a vibrant economy, the market won’t go away, it just requires patience and capital to pursue. Any indications of short term softness will likely be replaced by better prospects that consider longer time horizons. Now appears an appropriate time to set the stage for capitalizing on the market.

In the collection of articles within the Outlook and Forecast Section, the publisher, editors and contributors of The China Energy Report have compiled detailed forecasts, background and perspectives regarding China’s energy sector. These include:

· A Profile of China’s Energy Sector provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration
· A Profile of Taiwan’s Energy Sector provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration
· A Forecast provided by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (APERC), Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, suggesting that China's demand for energy will increase by 74 percent from 1995 to 2010 and final energy consumption will increase by 68 percent. Our thanks to Keiichi Yokobori and Wang Zhongan for their contribution and their interest in our activities.
· An analysis of the Sustainable Development Of Nuclear Power In China for the next 20 years provided by Chen Zhaobo, Executive Vice President, CNNC Beijing, China
.· An edited analysis of China’s coal industry provided by Ai Jiuchao of the State Administration of Coal Industry, and
· Perspectives from project developers Bill Ruccius, with US power developer AES, and comments from James Spencer, president and chief executive officer of Sithe China, regarding the market in China.
In addition to our thanks to the contributors mentioned above, our staff would also like to acknowledge the guidance and support provided by Charles Johnson, of the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, and Professor S.T. Hsieh of the University of Tulane
.As you enjoy The China Energy Report CD-ROM, please feel free to send us your suggestions crgadomski@erols.com on how we can improve the product to make it an even more useful tool for your marketing research and planning activities. We look forward to your comments and wish you the best of luck in China
.Chris Gadomski,
Publisher The China Energy Report
Published by Strategic Marketing, Inc and Emerging Markets Online
Strategic Marketing, Inc. 7 Lewis Ave, Hartsdale, NY 10530 Phone: 914 993 9060 Fax 914 993 9003
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