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It is often joked among observers of U.S. energy policy that our nation's formal energy policy can best be described as, "Pray for good weather."
I have, for example, witnessed utility officials in New York, air conditioning turned on high, sweat with nervousness watching electrical consumption rise on one particularly hot, hazy and humid June afternoon. The utility wasn't quite ready for that day's consumption spike, and their wishes were answered as the actual highs fell short of their worst fears which would have dropped the load. I have also heard Washington bureaucrats refer, in formal presentations, to milder weather as a way to temper rising winter natural gas prices. Now that is good policy.
Praying for good weather may be especially relevant for some of the 2008 presidential hopefuls vying for the public's attention--particularly Senators Clinton and Obama. Republicans, as well as Democrats not in the Clinton or Obama camps, are wringing their hands in anticipation of a knock-out fight between these two front runners for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Think the political version of American Idol, or better yet, a World Wrestling Federation Championship bout. What entertainment for the next 12 months…we will be poised on the edge of our seats.
Maybe. Though much anticipated, the Clinton and Obama squaring off may just be a side show among election year surprises. And that brings us back to the weather. Will the weather this summer of 2007 cooperate like it did, for example, during the summer of 2006? Can you name a hurricane from last year? If the weather turns ugly this summer--think Katrina and Rita in 2005--all of a sudden what is now a quiet political rumbling may turn into a perfect storm for Hillary and Barack. That storm of course is Al Gore.
As someone who teaches energy and environment courses at NYU it is easy to discern growing interest in rising energy prices, global warming and climate change. I see my web stats rise, I get calls from professors discussing their new proposed courses, I respond to students with detailed questions on solar and hydrogen. I also answer questions about how well my solar panels work on my house in California (great!), and I now see my friends buying hybrids.
Slowly, steadily, a paradigm shift is occurring within the context of global warming and climate change. The discussion is shifting from debate over human responsibility for the causes of climate change to a debate over the urgency to take action to curtail further global warming. And in the context of this debate, Al Gore has the high ground--not to mention his Oscar for An Inconvenient Truth--and a substantive Ten Point Plan already presented to Congress last March. This should worry Hillary and Barack.
Amidst much fanfare and media attention Gore articulated ten policy steps in March 2007 to awaken the U.S. to a need to start addressing climate change. (See www.algore.com) These include:
1.) An immediate freeze on carbon and a 90% reduction by 2050.
2.) Tax pollution (especially CO2) instead of employment and production.
3) Share some of these tax revenues with low-income and middle class people who will have a difficult time making this transition.
4.) Comply with Kyoto, but negotiate a strong global treaty to replace Kyoto to start in 2010. Get China and India to participate in the treaty. If they don't immediately participate, we have to move forward with the treaty regardless, trusting that they will join sooner rather than later.
5.) Stop any new coal-fired power plant not compatible with carbon capture and sequestration.
6.) Develop an "electranet" -- a smart grid that allows individual homeowners and small businesses to create green power and sell their excess power to the utility companies at a fair price. The goal is to create a grid that does not require huge, centralized power plants.
7.) Raise CAFE standards for cars and trucks as part of a comprehensive package.
8.) Set a date for the ban of incandescent light bulbs that gives industry time to create alternatives.
9.) Create Connie Mae, a carbon-neutral mortgage association. Connie Mae will defer the costs of things like insulation and energy efficient windows which cut carbon but are often not used by builders or renovators because they add to the upfront costs of homes, only paying for themselves after several years of energy savings.
10.) The SEC should require disclosure of carbon emissions in corporate reporting.
I have read other proposed solutions for addressing climate change and one aspect of Gore's plans that warrants highlighting is the urgency with which he says we need to start moving. This is not business as usual.
The U.S. is the largest CO2 emitter today, and the problem is serious enough to mandate concrete steps quickly. Another realization is that given China's economic growth and its huge coal reserves, the U.S. will soon be taken over by China as the largest CO2 emitter. The growth of many other Asian nations will add to that continent's green house gas emissions. As far as CO2 is concerned, Asia is the global warming front. At time of international disrespect for U.S. policies and leadership, an opportunity now beckons. Action on the climate is required now, not later. Can the U.S. pick up the mantle?
And that is why if you are concerned about climate change and global warming and the tarnished reputation of the U.S. abroad you might just start your rain dance soon. Not that we wish misfortune on those residents in the hurricane corridors of the Caribbean, Florida and Gulf of Mexico, but stormy weather this season will serve once again to raise awareness among the U.S. electorate. In our media saturated society, big stories drive action. Perhaps there are better energy strategies to consider than our present one that pumps as awful lot of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere with our power plants and automobiles.
Which brings me back to Al Gore--the green candidate---a positioning that no one can undermine. He already has a thriving Internet grassroots campaign building that is reportedly poised to raise millions of dollars. http://www.draftgore.com/
Besides the green vote, Al Gore also has the sympathy vote and the anti-war vote. He won the popular vote against George Bush in 2000, and he subsequently voiced his opposition to the war. Those Bush supporters in 2000 may face many "what if" questions when they go to the polls in 2008. A cleverly articulated policy towards the environment and national security may just be the right tonic for an Al Gore resurgence in 2008.
Pray for stormy weather?
Postscript--October 12, 2007
Congratulations Al--Gore Wins Nobel Peace Prize
Former Democratic Presidential candidate Al Gore shares The Nobel Prize with UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...
With environmental issues squarely mainstream, what are the implications for 2008 Democratic Presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Chris Gadomski reports.
PALO ALTO, October 12, 2007--After a brief news conference here, a reporter asked Al Gore, in the wake of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, if he would now consider running for president.
Al Gore did not respond to the question, but simply walked away leaving few, if any, in the crowd with an indication of current presidential aspirations.
Gore had earlier said that global warming and climate change constituted the "most dangerous challenge we've ever faced, but it is also the greatest opportunity we have had to make changes." Does that suggest an opportunity for Al?
In many ways Gore, and the crew that put together his climate change documentary An Inconvenient Truth can be credited with rapidly moving the climate change agenda from one of debate regarding man's contribution to global warming to a challenge over the urgency with which the world needs to move to address the problem.
Indeed the Nobel citation said, "He is probably the single individual who has done most to create greater worldwide understanding of the measures that need to be adopted." But how ffar and deep does that understanding carry into the American populace who will vote in the 2008 presidential elections?
Unfortunately for Al Gore and his followers, the real challenge is only now beginning. It is easy to talk about climate change, much more difficult to initiate serious action within the US to curb greenhouse gas emissions. How willing will the American public be to reach into their pockets to pick-up the tab for a carbon-constrained economic environment?
Hence the dilemna for Al Gore and the Democrats. Al owns the issue, but is he alone among the democratic presidential candidates who can muster the institutional and political support to carry the issue of action on the climate to the American electorate? Is it a broad enough plank upon which to stand to carry away the presidency?
What's left for Al Gore to do at age 59? He has raised the issue, is he now willing to let it go? Or does he now step up to the challenge of leading the way forward in search of viable economic and political solutions? Stay tuned.
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Chris Gadomski, a principal with SMIdirect in La Jolla, CA, develops business for his clients through strategic planning, marketing communication, and managing internet and search engine optimization strategies. Gadomski teaches energy policy and environmental graduate level courses at New York University.
All rights reserved, story reprintable with permission and citing source: Chris Gadomski, www.smidirect.net